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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Alessio Di Chirico won · KO/TKO

Elo1516

Elo1434

Joaquin BuckleyvsAlessio Di ChiricoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · Saturday, January 16, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Alessio Di Chirico won

KO/TKO

Style matchupJoaquin Buckley: Well-roundedvsAlessio Di Chirico: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Joaquin Buckley wins(76.2%)

Actual result: Alessio Di Chirico wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joaquin Buckley at -278 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alessio Di Chirico enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Alessio Di Chirico is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Joaquin Buckley has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joaquin Buckley

Red Corner

Alessio Di Chirico

Blue Corner

-278

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1516

Elo

1434

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24

KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24

vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25

DECvs Sean Brady · May 26

latest

Alessio Di ChiricoL5 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Holland · Jun 19

vs Makhmud Muradov · Sep 19

vs Zak Cummings · Aug 20

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Aug 21

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joaquin BuckleyMetricAlessio Di Chirico

3.62

Strikes / min

3.32

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

58%

Strike defense

61%

1.43

TDs / 15 min

1.46

70%

Takedown defense

83%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.52evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joaquin BuckleyAlessio Di Chirico

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)Alessio Di Chirico(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +81.6|Blue -81.6

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joaquin BuckleyTargetAlessio Di Chirico

By target zone

11% acc · 67%

Head

35% acc · 50%

33% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

14% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 75%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joaquin Buckley rounds

even

Alessio Di Chirico rounds

Round 1Alessio Di Chirico edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 22

Sig Strikes

12 / 23

13%

Sig Str %

52%

3 / 22

Total Strikes

12 / 23

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alessio Di Chirico	12 / 23	12 / 23	0 / 0	0
1	Joaquin Buckley	3 / 22	3 / 22	0 / 0	0

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17

Alessio Di Chirico

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11