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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Joaquin Buckley won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1516

Elo1497

Joaquin BuckleyvsAlbert DuraevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · Saturday, June 18, 2022Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Joaquin Buckley won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupJoaquin Buckley: Well-roundedvsAlbert Duraev: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Joaquin Buckley wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Joaquin Buckley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joaquin Buckley at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joaquin Buckley is a KO finisher (73% of wins). Albert Duraev has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joaquin Buckley

Red Corner

Albert Duraev

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1516

Elo

1497

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24

KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24

vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25

DECvs Sean Brady · May 26

latest

Albert Duraev

oldest →

vs Roman Kopylov · Oct 21

vs Chidi Njokuani · Mar 23

SUBvs JunYong Park · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joaquin BuckleyMetricAlbert Duraev

3.62

Strikes / min

2.99

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

58%

Strike defense

59%

1.43

TDs / 15 min

1.97

70%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.52evenly matched on net striking-0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joaquin BuckleyAlbert Duraev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)Albert Duraev(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.2|Blue -19.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joaquin BuckleyTargetAlbert Duraev

By target zone

19% acc · 56%

Head

8% acc · 30%

46% acc · 41%

Body

50% acc · 30%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

67% acc · 40%

By position

23% acc · 85%

Distance

18% acc · 90%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joaquin Buckley rounds

even

Albert Duraev rounds

Round 1Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:22

Knockdowns2

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:48Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 105

Sig Strikes

10 / 50

29%

Sig Str %

19%

30 / 108

Total Strikes

17 / 60

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 9

—

TD %

14%

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

1:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Albert Duraev	7 / 34	7 / 34	0 / 2
1	Joaquin Buckley	13 / 70	13 / 70	0 / 0
2	Albert Duraev	3 / 16	10 / 26	2 / 7
2	Joaquin Buckley	14 / 35	17 / 38	0 / 0

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17

Albert Duraev

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4