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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joaquim Silva won · S-DEC R3

Elo1507

Elo1490

Joaquim SilvavsNazareno MalegarieUFC Prediction Result

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · Saturday, September 5, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joaquim Silva won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Nazareno Malegarie wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Joaquim Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nazareno Malegarie at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nazareno Malegarie has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Joaquim Silva has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joaquim Silva

Red Corner

Nazareno Malegarie

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1507

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joaquim Silva

oldest →

KOvs Jesse Ronson · Oct 22

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Jun 23

vs Clay Guida · Dec 23

vs Drakkar Klose · May 24

vs Claudio Puelles · Sep 25

latest

Nazareno MalegarieNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joaquim SilvaMetricNazareno Malegarie

3.43

Strikes / min

3.87

4.17

Strikes absorbed / min

3.27

53%

Strike defense

69%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

1.00

70%

Takedown defense

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.74Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.60

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joaquim Silva(10 fights)Nazareno Malegarie(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.4|Blue -16.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joaquim SilvaTargetNazareno Malegarie

By target zone

24% acc · 71%

Head

34% acc · 84%

81% acc · 27%

Body

38% acc · 14%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

29% acc · 94%

Distance

34% acc · 95%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joaquim Silva rounds

even

Nazareno Malegarie rounds

Round 1Joaquim Silva edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:09

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Nazareno Malegarie edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 3Nazareno Malegarie edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 162

Sig Strikes

58 / 166

29.7%

Sig Str %

34.7%

49 / 162

Total Strikes

68 / 178

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nazareno Malegarie	14 / 42	21 / 51	0 / 1
1	Joaquim Silva	19 / 48	19 / 48	0 / 0
2	Nazareno Malegarie	20 / 54	23 / 57	1 / 1
2	Joaquim Silva	10 / 44	10 / 44	0 / 0
3	Nazareno Malegarie	24 / 70	24 / 70	0 / 1
3	Joaquim Silva	20 / 70	20 / 70	0 / 0

Joaquim Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Nazareno Malegarie

Stance—

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights1