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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joaquim Silva won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1507

Elo1437

Joaquim SilvavsJesse RonsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Saturday, October 1, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joaquim Silva won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:08

Style matchupJoaquim Silva: Well-roundedvsJesse Ronson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Joaquim Silva wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Joaquim Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joaquim Silva at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Joaquim Silva

Red Corner

Jesse Ronson

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1507

Elo

1437

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joaquim Silva

oldest →

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Jun 21

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Jun 23

vs Clay Guida · Dec 23

vs Drakkar Klose · May 24

vs Claudio Puelles · Sep 25

latest

Jesse Ronson

oldest →

vs Michel Prazeres · Sep 13

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 14

vs Kevin Lee · Jul 14

SUBvs Nicolas Dalby · Jul 20

SUBvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joaquim SilvaMetricJesse Ronson

3.43

Strikes / min

3.54

4.17

Strikes absorbed / min

3.39

53%

Strike defense

57%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

0.46

70%

Takedown defense

57%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.74evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joaquim SilvaJesse Ronson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joaquim Silva(10 fights)Jesse Ronson(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +301.0|Blue -301.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joaquim SilvaTargetJesse Ronson

By target zone

39% acc · 58%

Head

40% acc · 56%

75% acc · 27%

Body

61% acc · 28%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

60% acc · 15%

By position

50% acc · 84%

Distance

47% acc · 100%

Clinch

50% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joaquim Silva rounds

even

Jesse Ronson rounds

Round 1Jesse Ronson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:03

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Joaquim Silva edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 90

Sig Strikes

39 / 83

49.5%

Sig Str %

46.5%

51 / 96

Total Strikes

39 / 83

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:11

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jesse Ronson	25 / 53	25 / 53	0 / 1
1	Joaquim Silva	20 / 41	22 / 43	0 / 0
2	Jesse Ronson	14 / 30	14 / 30	0 / 0
2	Joaquim Silva	25 / 49	29 / 53	0 / 0

Joaquim Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12

Jesse Ronson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6