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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joaquim Silva won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1507
Joaquim Silva
Elo1362

Joaquim SilvavsAndrew HolbrookUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · Friday, July 8, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joaquim Silva won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:34

Style matchupJoaquim Silva: Well-roundedvsAndrew Holbrook: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Andrew Holbrook wins(57.7%)

Actual result: Joaquim Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrew Holbrook at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joaquim Silva has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Andrew Holbrook (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Joaquim Silva
Red Corner
VS
Andrew Holbrook
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
1507
Elo
1362
37
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joaquim Silva
oldest →
W
KOvs Jesse Ronson · Oct 22
L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Jun 23
W
vs Clay Guida · Dec 23
L
vs Drakkar Klose · May 24
W
vs Claudio Puelles · Sep 25
latest
Andrew HolbrookL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Ramsey Nijem · Jul 15
W
vs Jake Matthews · Nov 16
L
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Apr 17
L
KOvs Thibault Gouti · Sep 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joaquim SilvaMetricAndrew Holbrook
3.43
Strikes / min
2.20
4.17
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
53%
Strike defense
54%
0.34
TDs / 15 min
0.85
70%
Takedown defense
10%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
2.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.74evenly matched on net striking-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1519Strikes49.0 vs 20.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 2.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Joaquim SilvaAndrew Holbrook

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joaquim Silva(10 fights)Andrew Holbrook(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +145.1|Blue -145.1
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joaquim SilvaTargetAndrew Holbrook

By target zone

6
75% acc · 100%
Head
1
50% acc · 50%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 50%
0
Leg
0

By position

1
33% acc · 17%
Distance
1
50% acc · 50%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 50%
5
100% acc · 83%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Joaquim Silva rounds
0
even
0
Andrew Holbrook rounds
Round 1Joaquim Silva edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
6 / 8
Sig Strikes
2 / 3
75%
Sig Str %
66%
6 / 8
Total Strikes
2 / 3
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Andrew Holbrook2 / 32 / 30 / 00
1Joaquim Silva6 / 86 / 80 / 10

Joaquim Silva

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights12

Andrew Holbrook

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights5