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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Elias Silverio won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1355

Joao ZeferinovsElias SilverioUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · Wednesday, September 4, 2013Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Elias Silverio won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Joao Zeferino wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Elias Silverio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joao Zeferino at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Elias Silverio has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joao Zeferino

Red Corner

Elias Silverio

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1352

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joao Zeferino

oldest →

vs Rafael Natal · May 13

latest

Elias SilverioL2 streak

oldest →

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Jan 14

SUBvs Ernest Chavez · May 14

KOvs Rashid Magomedov · Dec 14

vs Shane Campbell · Aug 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joao ZeferinoMetricElias Silverio

0.83

Strikes / min

3.67

2.60

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

48%

Strike defense

51%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

1.62

50%

Takedown defense

85%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.77Δ 2.47 — meaningful gap+0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joao ZeferinoElias Silverio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joao Zeferino(2 fights)Elias Silverio(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.8|Blue +2.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joao ZeferinoTargetElias Silverio

By target zone

29% acc · 55%

Head

45% acc · 37%

80% acc · 36%

Body

75% acc · 49%

50% acc · 9%

Leg

58% acc · 14%

By position

27% acc · 55%

Distance

48% acc · 49%

75% acc · 27%

Clinch

79% acc · 31%

100% acc · 18%

Ground

67% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joao Zeferino rounds

even

Elias Silverio rounds

Round 1Elias Silverio edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control2:49

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 2Elias Silverio edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:44

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Round 3Elias Silverio edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:33

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 28

Sig Strikes

49 / 84

42%

Sig Str %

59%

20 / 37

Total Strikes

130 / 178

1 / 16

TDs

1 / 2

8.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:06

Ctrl Time

4:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Elias Silverio	18 / 33	40 / 55	0 / 0
1	Joao Zeferino	3 / 12	4 / 13	0 / 7
2	Elias Silverio	15 / 22	51 / 58	0 / 0
2	Joao Zeferino	4 / 7	9 / 12	1 / 4
3	Elias Silverio	16 / 29	39 / 65	1 / 2
3	Joao Zeferino	4 / 9	7 / 12	0 / 5

Joao Zeferino

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Elias Silverio

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5