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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joanne Wood won · S-DEC R3

Elo1505

Elo1500

Joanne WoodvsLuana CarolinaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Joanne Wood won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJoanne Wood: Pressure fightervsLuana Carolina: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Luana Carolina wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Joanne Wood wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luana Carolina at +186 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luana Carolina has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joanne Wood

Red Corner

Luana Carolina

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+186

(35%)

1505

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joanne Wood

oldest →

SUBvs Taila Santos · Nov 21

SUBvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 22

vs Maryna Moroz · Mar 24

latest

Luana Carolina

oldest →

KOvs Molly McCann · Mar 22

vs Ivana Petrovic · Jul 23

KOvs Julija Stoliarenko · Feb 24

vs Lucie Pudilova · Jul 24

vs Michelle Montague · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joanne WoodMetricLuana Carolina

7.10

Strikes / min

4.65

4.89

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

51%

Strike defense

51%

1.52

TDs / 15 min

0.30

58%

Takedown defense

68%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.21Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joanne WoodLuana Carolina

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joanne Wood(4 fights)Luana Carolina(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.0|Blue -5.0

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joanne WoodTargetLuana Carolina

By target zone

43% acc · 47%

Head

38% acc · 55%

87% acc · 35%

Body

85% acc · 34%

73% acc · 18%

Leg

73% acc · 11%

By position

47% acc · 64%

Distance

45% acc · 75%

92% acc · 35%

Clinch

74% acc · 25%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joanne Wood rounds

even

Luana Carolina rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:32

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Joanne Wood edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control1:07

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Joanne Wood edged it

Sig. strikes60

Takedowns1

Control0:11

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

131 / 228

Sig Strikes

100 / 199

57.3%

Sig Str %

49.7%

177 / 278

Total Strikes

123 / 222

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:50

Ctrl Time

0:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luana Carolina	38 / 65	42 / 69	0 / 0
1	Joanne Wood	38 / 62	55 / 79	0 / 1
2	Luana Carolina	24 / 53	33 / 62	0 / 0
2	Joanne Wood	33 / 60	56 / 87	1 / 1
3	Luana Carolina	38 / 81	48 / 91	0 / 0
3	Joanne Wood	60 / 106	66 / 112	1 / 2

Joanne Wood

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4

Luana Carolina

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights10