← All fights/Event page

Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alexa Grasso won · SUB R1

Elo1505

Elo1512

Joanne WoodvsAlexa GrassoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Saturday, March 26, 2022Columbus, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Alexa Grasso won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:57

Style matchupJoanne Wood: Pressure fightervsAlexa Grasso: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alexa Grasso wins(74.5%)

Actual result: Alexa Grasso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexa Grasso at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Joanne Wood

Red Corner

Alexa Grasso

Blue Corner

+240

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-305

(75%)

1505

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joanne WoodW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Taila Santos · Nov 21

vs Luana Carolina · Mar 23

vs Maryna Moroz · Mar 24

latest

Alexa Grasso

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22

SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24

vs Natalia Silva · May 25

KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joanne WoodMetricAlexa Grasso

7.10

Strikes / min

4.11

4.89

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

51%

Strike defense

58%

1.52

TDs / 15 min

0.40

58%

Takedown defense

54%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.21Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joanne WoodAlexa Grasso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joanne Wood(4 fights)Alexa Grasso(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.2|Blue +7.2

Recent Form

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -280.0|Blue +280.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joanne WoodTargetAlexa Grasso

By target zone

67% acc · 65%

Head

52% acc · 81%

67% acc · 12%

Body

80% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

73% acc · 94%

Distance

54% acc · 81%

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 13%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joanne Wood rounds

even

Alexa Grasso rounds

Round 1Joanne Wood edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:15Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 49

Sig Strikes

16 / 28

69%

Sig Str %

57%

61 / 76

Total Strikes

50 / 65

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexa Grasso	16 / 28	50 / 65	2 / 2	1
1	Joanne Wood	34 / 49	61 / 76	0 / 0	0

Joanne Wood

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4

Alexa Grasso

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14