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Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jennifer Maia won · SUB R1
Elo1493
Joanne Calderwood
Elo1499

Joanne CalderwoodvsJennifer MaiaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Saturday, August 1, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jennifer Maia won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:29

Model Prediction: Joanne Calderwood wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Jennifer Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joanne Calderwood at -162 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Joanne Calderwood
Red Corner
VS
Jennifer Maia
Blue Corner
-162
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1493
Elo
1499
34
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'4"
165.1 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joanne Calderwood
oldest →
W
vs Ariane Lipski · Jan 19
L
vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jun 19
W
vs Andrea Lee · Sep 19
W
vs Jessica Eye · Jan 21
L
vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 21
latest
Jennifer Maia
oldest →
L
vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jan 22
L
vs Manon Fiorot · Mar 22
W
vs Maryna Moroz · Nov 22
W
vs Casey O'Neill · Mar 23
L
vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joanne CalderwoodMetricJennifer Maia
—
Strikes / min
4.35
—
Strikes absorbed / min
4.52
—
Strike defense
55%
—
TDs / 15 min
0.42
—
Takedown defense
58%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1503Strikes6.2 vs 4.0Takedowns1.9 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form0.4 vs 0.0
Joanne CalderwoodJennifer Maia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joanne Calderwood(10 fights)Jennifer Maia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -5.8|Blue +5.8
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +2.8|Blue -2.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Joanne Calderwood

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights1

Jennifer Maia

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights12