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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won · U-DEC R5

Elo1427

Elo1359

Joanna JedrzejczykvsValerie LetourneauUFC Prediction Result

UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · Saturday, November 14, 2015Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJoanna Jedrzejczyk: StrikervsValerie Letourneau: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Valerie Letourneau wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valerie Letourneau at +925 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Red Corner

Valerie Letourneau

Blue Corner

-1400

(93%)

Vegas Odds

+925

(10%)

1427

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joanna JedrzejczykL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 19

vs Weili Zhang · Mar 20

KOvs Zhang Weili · Jun 22

latest

Valerie LetourneauL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elizabeth Phillips · Jun 14

vs Jessica Rakoczy · Apr 15

vs Maryna Moroz · Aug 15

KOvs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 16

vs Viviane Pereira · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joanna JedrzejczykMetricValerie Letourneau

6.28

Strikes / min

4.51

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

5.40

62%

Strike defense

58%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

0.77

80%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.03Δ 3.92 — meaningful gap-0.89

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joanna JedrzejczykValerie Letourneau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)Valerie Letourneau(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +68.8|Blue -68.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +64.0|Blue -64.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joanna JedrzejczykTargetValerie Letourneau

By target zone

34% acc · 44%

Head

26% acc · 70%

79% acc · 24%

Body

63% acc · 19%

82% acc · 32%

Leg

79% acc · 11%

By position

203

49% acc · 92%

Distance

30% acc · 88%

63% acc · 8%

Clinch

54% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk rounds

even

Valerie Letourneau rounds

Round 1Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control2:12

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:37

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:17

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 4Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes57

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

220 / 441

Sig Strikes

103 / 321

49.4%

Sig Str %

33.2%

227 / 448

Total Strikes

120 / 341

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 5

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

3:06

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Valerie Letourneau	11 / 27	26 / 45	1 / 1
1	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	19 / 40	23 / 44	0 / 0
2	Valerie Letourneau	25 / 64	26 / 65	0 / 1
2	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	44 / 99	46 / 101	0 / 0
3	Valerie Letourneau	21 / 62	22 / 63	0 / 2
3	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	47 / 85	48 / 86	0 / 0
4	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	53 / 108	53 / 108	0 / 0
4	Valerie Letourneau	21 / 80	21 / 80	0 / 1
5	Valerie Letourneau	25 / 88	25 / 88	0 / 0
5	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	57 / 109	57 / 109	0 / 0

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15

Valerie Letourneau

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6