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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Rose Namajunas won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1427

Elo1499

Joanna JedrzejczykvsRose NamajunasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Saturday, November 4, 2017New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Rose Namajunas won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:03

Style matchupJoanna Jedrzejczyk: StrikervsRose Namajunas: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Rose Namajunas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joanna Jedrzejczyk at -700 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Red Corner

Rose Namajunas

Blue Corner

-700

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1427

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joanna JedrzejczykL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 19

vs Weili Zhang · Mar 20

KOvs Zhang Weili · Jun 22

latest

Rose Namajunas

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24

vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24

vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24

vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25

vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joanna JedrzejczykMetricRose Namajunas

6.28

Strikes / min

3.50

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

62%

Strike defense

63%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

1.47

80%

Takedown defense

62%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.03Δ 2.91 — meaningful gap+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joanna JedrzejczykRose Namajunas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)Rose Namajunas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -71.5|Blue +71.5

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joanna JedrzejczykTargetRose Namajunas

By target zone

5% acc · 40%

Head

44% acc · 93%

50% acc · 20%

Body

67% acc · 40%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

12% acc · 100%

Distance

35% acc · 53%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

70% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk rounds

even

Rose Namajunas rounds

Round 1Rose Namajunas edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 42

Sig Strikes

15 / 34

11%

Sig Str %

44%

5 / 42

Total Strikes

18 / 37

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rose Namajunas	15 / 34	18 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	5 / 42	5 / 42	0 / 0	0

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights19