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Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Joanna Jedrzejczyk won · U-DEC R5
Elo1427
Elo1493

Joanna JedrzejczykvsMichelle WatersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Saturday, October 12, 2019Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joanna Jedrzejczyk at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joanna Jedrzejczyk enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Red Corner
VS
Michelle Waterson
Blue Corner
-300
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
1427
Elo
1493
38
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'3"
165.1 cm
Reach
157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joanna JedrzejczykL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Rose Namajunas · Apr 18
W
vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 18
L
vs Weili Zhang · Mar 20
L
KOvs Zhang Weili · Jun 22
latest
Michelle Waterson
oldest →
W
vs Felice Herrig · Oct 18
W
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Mar 19
L
vs Carla Esparza · May 20
W
vs Angela Hill · Sep 20
L
vs Marina Rodriguez · May 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joanna JedrzejczykMetricMichelle Waterson
6.28
Strikes / min
—
3.25
Strikes absorbed / min
—
62%
Strike defense
—
0.27
TDs / 15 min
—
80%
Takedown defense
—
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1577 vs 1551Strikes6.2 vs 3.4Takedowns0.3 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.10 vs 1.20Form-0.3 vs 0.7
Joanna JedrzejczykMichelle Waterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)Michelle Waterson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -65.9|Blue +65.9
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +3.0|Blue -3.0
Grappler Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Layoff
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights15

Michelle Waterson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights3