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Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Joanna Jedrzejczyk won · U-DEC R5
Elo1427
Elo1483
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Joanna JedrzejczykvsKarolina KowalkiewiczUFC Prediction Result

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · Saturday, November 12, 2016New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJoanna Jedrzejczyk: StrikervsKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joanna Jedrzejczyk at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Red Corner
VS
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Blue Corner
-400
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+325
(24%)
1427
Elo
1483
38
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'3"
165.1 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joanna JedrzejczykL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 18
W
vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 19
L
vs Weili Zhang · Mar 20
L
KOvs Zhang Weili · Jun 22
latest
Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23
W
vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23
L
vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24
L
vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24
L
KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joanna JedrzejczykMetricKarolina Kowalkiewicz
6.28
Strikes / min
5.54
3.25
Strikes absorbed / min
5.77
62%
Strike defense
56%
0.27
TDs / 15 min
0.36
80%
Takedown defense
74%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.03Δ 3.26 — meaningful gap-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1590 vs 1548Strikes109.8 vs 89.7Takedowns0.2 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Joanna JedrzejczykKarolina Kowalkiewicz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -56.0|Blue +56.0
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +22.0|Blue -22.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joanna JedrzejczykTargetKarolina Kowalkiewicz

By target zone

63
33% acc · 37%
Head
36
19% acc · 72%
44
54% acc · 26%
Body
11
50% acc · 22%
64
73% acc · 37%
Leg
3
30% acc · 6%

By position

126
43% acc · 74%
Distance
36
18% acc · 72%
45
67% acc · 26%
Clinch
14
56% acc · 28%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Joanna Jedrzejczyk rounds
0
even
0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds
Round 1Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:28
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:39Control
Round 2Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:22
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
Round 3Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:46
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:36Control
Round 4Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns1
Control0:40
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:17Control
Round 5Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it
Sig. strikes43
Takedowns0
Control1:14
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
171 / 360
Sig Strikes
50 / 220
46.8%
Sig Str %
21%
181 / 371
Total Strikes
63 / 234
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:30
Ctrl Time
3:34

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Karolina Kowalkiewicz8 / 4611 / 490 / 00
1Joanna Jedrzejczyk29 / 6831 / 700 / 00
2Karolina Kowalkiewicz6 / 328 / 340 / 10
2Joanna Jedrzejczyk27 / 6328 / 650 / 00
3Karolina Kowalkiewicz6 / 349 / 370 / 00
3Joanna Jedrzejczyk33 / 7035 / 720 / 00
4Joanna Jedrzejczyk39 / 7044 / 751 / 10
4Karolina Kowalkiewicz25 / 5828 / 620 / 00
5Karolina Kowalkiewicz5 / 507 / 520 / 00
5Joanna Jedrzejczyk43 / 8943 / 890 / 00

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights15

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights19