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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1427

Elo1492

Joanna JedrzejczykvsJessica PenneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · Saturday, June 20, 2015Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:22

Model Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joanna Jedrzejczyk at -900 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Penne enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Red Corner

Jessica Penne

Blue Corner

-900

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+600

(14%)

1427

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joanna JedrzejczykL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 19

vs Weili Zhang · Mar 20

KOvs Zhang Weili · Jun 22

latest

Jessica PenneL3 streak

oldest →

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 21

SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Aug 21

vs Emily Ducote · Jul 22

SUBvs Tabatha Ricci · Mar 23

vs Elise Reed · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joanna JedrzejczykMetricJessica Penne

6.28

Strikes / min

2.63

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

5.05

62%

Strike defense

45%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

1.29

80%

Takedown defense

36%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.03Δ 5.45 — meaningful gap-2.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joanna JedrzejczykJessica Penne

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)Jessica Penne(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -64.3|Blue +64.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -92.0|Blue +92.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joanna JedrzejczykTargetJessica Penne

By target zone

52% acc · 64%

Head

19% acc · 52%

82% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 28%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

60% acc · 76%

Distance

28% acc · 96%

69% acc · 19%

Clinch

33% acc · 4%

67% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk rounds

even

Jessica Penne rounds

Round 1Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 2Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes57

Takedowns0

Control0:39

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 3Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:07

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

126 / 204

Sig Strikes

25 / 88

59.3%

Sig Str %

28%

162 / 247

Total Strikes

28 / 91

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 11

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:46

Ctrl Time

2:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jessica Penne	8 / 26	11 / 29	0 / 5
1	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	23 / 47	38 / 63	0 / 0
2	Jessica Penne	9 / 33	9 / 33	0 / 4
2	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	57 / 81	75 / 105	0 / 0
3	Jessica Penne	8 / 29	8 / 29	0 / 2
3	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	46 / 76	49 / 79	0 / 0

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15

Jessica Penne

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9