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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won · U-DEC R5

Elo1427

Elo1484

Joanna JedrzejczykvsJessica AndradeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, May 13, 2017Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJoanna Jedrzejczyk: StrikervsJessica Andrade: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joanna Jedrzejczyk at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Red Corner

Jessica Andrade

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1427

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'1"

165.1 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joanna JedrzejczykL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 19

vs Weili Zhang · Mar 20

KOvs Zhang Weili · Jun 22

latest

Jessica AndradeL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mackenzie Dern · Nov 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joanna JedrzejczykMetricJessica Andrade

6.28

Strikes / min

6.37

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

5.58

62%

Strike defense

54%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

2.10

80%

Takedown defense

75%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.03Δ 2.24 — meaningful gap+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joanna JedrzejczykJessica Andrade

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)Jessica Andrade(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -56.1|Blue +56.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joanna JedrzejczykTargetJessica Andrade

By target zone

101

48% acc · 45%

Head

31% acc · 61%

78% acc · 22%

Body

43% acc · 18%

96% acc · 33%

Leg

85% acc · 20%

By position

193

63% acc · 86%

Distance

33% acc · 70%

71% acc · 14%

Clinch

62% acc · 29%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk rounds

even

Jessica Andrade rounds

Round 1Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:06

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:26Control

Round 2Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 3Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 4Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 5Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:09

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

225 / 352

Sig Strikes

83 / 218

63.8%

Sig Str %

39.4%

230 / 357

Total Strikes

94 / 230

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 10

—

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

3:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jessica Andrade	16 / 30	20 / 34	1 / 3
1	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	46 / 60	46 / 60	0 / 0
2	Jessica Andrade	17 / 53	17 / 53	1 / 3
2	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	48 / 77	50 / 79	0 / 0
3	Jessica Andrade	14 / 44	16 / 46	0 / 3
3	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	48 / 73	48 / 73	0 / 0
4	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	40 / 65	43 / 68	0 / 0
4	Jessica Andrade	10 / 23	13 / 27	0 / 1
5	Jessica Andrade	26 / 68	28 / 70	0 / 0
5	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	43 / 77	43 / 77	0 / 0

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30