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Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Joanna Jedrzejczyk won · U-DEC R5
Elo1427
Elo1493
Claudia Gadelha

Joanna JedrzejczykvsClaudia GadelhaUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · Friday, July 8, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJoanna Jedrzejczyk: StrikervsClaudia Gadelha: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joanna Jedrzejczyk at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joanna Jedrzejczyk has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Red Corner
VS
Claudia Gadelha
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1427
Elo
1493
38
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'4"
165.1 cm
Reach
160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joanna JedrzejczykL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 18
W
vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 19
L
vs Weili Zhang · Mar 20
L
KOvs Zhang Weili · Jun 22
latest
Claudia Gadelha
oldest →
L
vs Jessica Andrade · Sep 17
W
vs Carla Esparza · Jun 18
L
vs Nina Ansaroff · Dec 18
W
vs Angela Hill · May 20
L
vs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joanna JedrzejczykMetricClaudia Gadelha
6.28
Strikes / min
3.31
3.25
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
62%
Strike defense
57%
0.27
TDs / 15 min
3.03
80%
Takedown defense
58%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.03Δ 4.29 — meaningful gap-1.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1577 vs 1516Strikes96.6 vs 69.3Takedowns0.0 vs 5.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form1.0 vs 0.4
Joanna JedrzejczykClaudia Gadelha

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)Claudia Gadelha(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -65.3|Blue +65.3
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Layoff
Red -105.0|Blue +105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joanna JedrzejczykTargetClaudia Gadelha

By target zone

112
44% acc · 64%
Head
57
42% acc · 90%
35
90% acc · 20%
Body
5
45% acc · 8%
29
83% acc · 16%
Leg
1
33% acc · 2%

By position

146
50% acc · 83%
Distance
46
37% acc · 73%
28
76% acc · 16%
Clinch
10
67% acc · 16%
2
100% acc · 1%
Ground
7
78% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Joanna Jedrzejczyk rounds
0
even
2
Claudia Gadelha rounds
Round 1Claudia Gadelha edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:20
Knockdowns0
14Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:31Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Claudia Gadelha edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:18
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:16Control
Round 3Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns0
Control0:23
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:41Control
Round 4Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it
Sig. strikes69
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:32
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
176 / 330
Sig Strikes
63 / 150
51%
Sig Str %
44.2%
194 / 351
Total Strikes
101 / 191
1 / 2
TDs
4 / 13
50%
TD %
45.5%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:33
Ctrl Time
9:30

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Claudia Gadelha14 / 3729 / 542 / 30
1Joanna Jedrzejczyk19 / 4722 / 500 / 00
2Claudia Gadelha9 / 1531 / 381 / 60
2Joanna Jedrzejczyk11 / 2119 / 321 / 10
3Claudia Gadelha18 / 3019 / 311 / 10
3Joanna Jedrzejczyk40 / 7645 / 810 / 10
4Joanna Jedrzejczyk69 / 10969 / 1090 / 00
4Claudia Gadelha11 / 3811 / 380 / 00
5Claudia Gadelha11 / 3011 / 300 / 30
5Joanna Jedrzejczyk37 / 7739 / 790 / 00

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights15

Claudia Gadelha

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights11