Featherweight

3 Rounds

Joanderson Brito won · SUB R1

Elo1538

Elo1485

Joanderson BritovsLucas AlexanderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Saturday, October 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joanderson Brito won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:02

Style matchupJoanderson Brito: WrestlervsLucas Alexander: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Joanderson Brito wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Joanderson Brito wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joanderson Brito at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joanderson Brito threatens submissions; Lucas Alexander has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Lucas Alexander has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Joanderson Brito

Red Corner

Lucas Alexander

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1538

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joanderson BritoW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jack Shore · May 24

vs William Gomis · Sep 24

vs Pat Sabatini · Apr 25

vs Isaac Thomson · Dec 25

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Jun 26

latest

Lucas AlexanderL2 streak

oldest →

vs Steven Peterson · Mar 23

KOvs Jeka Saragih · Nov 23

KOvs Bogdan Grad · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joanderson BritoMetricLucas Alexander

2.43

Strikes / min

4.69

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

44%

Strike defense

56%

3.38

TDs / 15 min

0.00

47%

Takedown defense

60%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.11Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap+1.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joanderson BritoLucas Alexander

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joanderson Brito(10 fights)Lucas Alexander(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +53.0|Blue -53.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joanderson BritoTargetLucas Alexander

By target zone

40% acc · 50%

Head

0% acc

Body

67% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

0% acc

Distance

50% acc · 100%

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joanderson Brito rounds

even

Lucas Alexander rounds

Round 1Joanderson Brito edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control1:25

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 8

Sig Strikes

1 / 2

50%

Sig Str %

50%

7 / 11

Total Strikes

1 / 2

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lucas Alexander	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Joanderson Brito	4 / 8	7 / 11	2 / 2	1

Joanderson Brito

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10

Lucas Alexander

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4