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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Veronica Hardy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1522

Elo1520

JJ AldrichvsVeronica HardyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · Saturday, May 11, 2024St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Veronica Hardy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Veronica Hardy wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Veronica Hardy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Veronica Hardy at -118 American odds

+$85 profit

$185 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

JJ Aldrich enters on a 4-fight win streak.
JJ Aldrich has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
JJ Aldrich has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

JJ Aldrich

Red Corner

Veronica Hardy

Blue Corner

-102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-118

(54%)

1522

Elo

1520

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

JJ AldrichW4 streak

oldest →

vs Ariane da Silva · Mar 23

KOvs Liang Na · Aug 23

vs Montana De La Rosa · Oct 23

vs Andrea Lee · Mar 25

DECvs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Apr 26

latest

Veronica Hardy

oldest →

vs Juliana Miller · Mar 23

vs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Dec 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Nov 24

vs Brogan Walker · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

JJ AldrichMetricVeronica Hardy

3.92

Strikes / min

3.06

4.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

61%

Strike defense

50%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

0.82

67%

Takedown defense

51%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.42evenly matched on net striking-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

JJ AldrichVeronica Hardy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

JJ Aldrich(10 fights)Veronica Hardy(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

JJ AldrichTargetVeronica Hardy

By target zone

37% acc · 70%

Head

37% acc · 61%

73% acc · 30%

Body

50% acc · 8%

0% acc

Leg

92% acc · 31%

By position

32% acc · 56%

Distance

44% acc · 83%

89% acc · 30%

Clinch

67% acc · 17%

57% acc · 15%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

JJ Aldrich rounds

even

Veronica Hardy rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:34

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Veronica Hardy edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:12

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3JJ Aldrich edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control2:23

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 63

Sig Strikes

36 / 78

42.7%

Sig Str %

45.3%

38 / 76

Total Strikes

69 / 113

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:09

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Veronica Hardy	14 / 24	26 / 36	0 / 0
1	JJ Aldrich	9 / 24	10 / 25	0 / 2
2	Veronica Hardy	15 / 35	21 / 41	0 / 0
2	JJ Aldrich	8 / 18	10 / 20	0 / 0
3	Veronica Hardy	7 / 19	22 / 36	0 / 0
3	JJ Aldrich	10 / 21	18 / 31	0 / 0

JJ Aldrich

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16

Veronica Hardy

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5