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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

JJ Aldrich won · U-DEC R3

Elo1522

Elo1377

JJ AldrichvsLauren MuellerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Saturday, October 12, 2019Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

JJ Aldrich won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJJ Aldrich: Well-roundedvsLauren Mueller: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: JJ Aldrich wins(61.6%)

Actual result: JJ Aldrich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

JJ Aldrich at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors JJ Aldrich (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

JJ Aldrich

Red Corner

Lauren Mueller

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1522

Elo

1377

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

JJ AldrichW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Liang Na · Aug 23

vs Montana De La Rosa · Oct 23

vs Veronica Hardy · May 24

vs Andrea Lee · Mar 25

DECvs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Apr 26

latest

Lauren MuellerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Shana Dobson · Apr 18

SUBvs Wu Yanan · Nov 18

vs Poliana Botelho · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

JJ AldrichMetricLauren Mueller

3.92

Strikes / min

4.08

4.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

61%

Strike defense

58%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

0.70

67%

Takedown defense

71%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.42evenly matched on net striking+0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

JJ AldrichLauren Mueller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

JJ Aldrich(10 fights)Lauren Mueller(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +144.9|Blue -144.9

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

JJ AldrichTargetLauren Mueller

By target zone

42% acc · 80%

Head

29% acc · 63%

91% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 19%

71% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

46% acc · 95%

Distance

36% acc · 96%

44% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

JJ Aldrich rounds

even

Lauren Mueller rounds

Round 1JJ Aldrich edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:30

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:22

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3JJ Aldrich edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 160

Sig Strikes

54 / 147

46%

Sig Str %

36.3%

78 / 164

Total Strikes

60 / 153

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:52

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lauren Mueller	9 / 25	11 / 27	1 / 1
1	JJ Aldrich	11 / 25	13 / 27	1 / 1
2	Lauren Mueller	26 / 68	30 / 72	0 / 0
2	JJ Aldrich	25 / 51	27 / 53	0 / 1
3	Lauren Mueller	19 / 54	19 / 54	0 / 0
3	JJ Aldrich	38 / 84	38 / 84	0 / 0

JJ Aldrich

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16

Lauren Mueller

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4