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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alex Pereira won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1503

Elo1523

Jiri ProchazkavsAlex PereiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 11, 2023New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Alex Pereira won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:08

Style matchupJiri Prochazka: Pressure fightervsAlex Pereira: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alex Pereira wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Alex Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Pereira at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jiri Prochazka is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Alex Pereira has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Alex Pereira is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Jiri Prochazka has lost 100% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Jiri Prochazka

Red Corner

Alex Pereira

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1503

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jiri Prochazka

oldest →

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · Apr 24

KOvs Alex Pereira · Jun 24

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Jan 25

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Apr 26

latest

Alex Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 24

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 25

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jiri ProchazkaMetricAlex Pereira

5.61

Strikes / min

5.16

5.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

45%

Strike defense

53%

0.49

TDs / 15 min

0.11

68%

Takedown defense

79%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.06Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap+1.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jiri ProchazkaAlex Pereira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jiri Prochazka(9 fights)Alex Pereira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.0|Blue +20.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +413.0|Blue -413.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jiri ProchazkaTargetAlex Pereira

By target zone

49% acc · 60%

Head

55% acc · 55%

70% acc · 23%

Body

63% acc · 13%

83% acc · 17%

Leg

80% acc · 32%

By position

53% acc · 87%

Distance

51% acc · 58%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

86% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jiri Prochazka rounds

even

Alex Pereira rounds

Round 1Jiri Prochazka edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:17

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:28

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 53

Sig Strikes

38 / 61

56%

Sig Str %

60%

44 / 70

Total Strikes

49 / 72

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:45

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Pereira	11 / 20	17 / 26	0 / 0	1
1	Jiri Prochazka	11 / 19	23 / 33	1 / 2	0
2	Alex Pereira	27 / 41	32 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Jiri Prochazka	19 / 34	21 / 37	0 / 1	0

Jiri Prochazka

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8

Alex Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12