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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jiri Prochazka won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1503

Elo1471

Jiri ProchazkavsAleksandar RakicUFC Prediction Result

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Saturday, April 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jiri Prochazka won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:17

Style matchupJiri Prochazka: Pressure fightervsAleksandar Rakic: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jiri Prochazka wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Jiri Prochazka wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jiri Prochazka at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aleksandar Rakic enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jiri Prochazka is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Aleksandar Rakic has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Aleksandar Rakic has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jiri Prochazka

Red Corner

Aleksandar Rakic

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1503

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jiri Prochazka

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Nov 23

KOvs Alex Pereira · Jun 24

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Jan 25

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Apr 26

latest

Aleksandar RakicL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Aug 20

vs Thiago Santos · Mar 21

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · May 22

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 24

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jiri ProchazkaMetricAleksandar Rakic

5.61

Strikes / min

4.13

5.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

45%

Strike defense

51%

0.49

TDs / 15 min

0.64

68%

Takedown defense

85%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.06Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap+1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jiri ProchazkaAleksandar Rakic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jiri Prochazka(9 fights)Aleksandar Rakic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.0|Blue -32.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -546.0|Blue +546.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jiri ProchazkaTargetAleksandar Rakic

By target zone

55% acc · 81%

Head

44% acc · 59%

56% acc · 7%

Body

50% acc · 2%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

77% acc · 40%

By position

52% acc · 65%

Distance

52% acc · 97%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

71% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jiri Prochazka rounds

even

Aleksandar Rakic rounds

Round 1Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:03

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jiri Prochazka edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns1

Control0:35

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 118

Sig Strikes

58 / 109

54%

Sig Str %

53.5%

69 / 118

Total Strikes

58 / 109

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aleksandar Rakic	36 / 69	36 / 69	0 / 0
1	Jiri Prochazka	16 / 38	16 / 38	0 / 0
2	Aleksandar Rakic	22 / 40	22 / 40	0 / 0
2	Jiri Prochazka	53 / 80	53 / 80	1 / 1

Jiri Prochazka

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8

Aleksandar Rakic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights11