Flyweight

3 Rounds

Nate Maness won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1506

Jimmy FlickvsNate ManessUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · Saturday, June 15, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nate Maness won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJimmy Flick: WrestlervsNate Maness: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nate Maness wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Nate Maness wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Maness at -720 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jimmy Flick threatens submissions; Nate Maness has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Nate Maness has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Nate Maness has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jimmy Flick

Red Corner

Nate Maness

Blue Corner

+450

(18%)

Vegas Odds

-720

(88%)

1487

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jimmy Flick

oldest →

SUBvs Cody Durden · Dec 20

KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 23

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 23

SUBvs Malcolm Gordon · Jan 24

vs Matt Schnell · Apr 25

latest

Nate Maness

oldest →

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Nov 20

KOvs Tony Gravely · Sep 21

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jun 22

SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 22

KOvs Mateus Mendonca · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jimmy FlickMetricNate Maness

1.67

Strikes / min

3.14

4.70

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

43%

Strike defense

42%

2.36

TDs / 15 min

0.68

Takedown defense

80%

3.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.03Δ 2.29 — meaningful gap-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jimmy FlickNate Maness

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jimmy Flick(6 fights)Nate Maness(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.5|Blue +18.5

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jimmy FlickTargetNate Maness

By target zone

31% acc · 22%

Head

47% acc · 71%

60% acc · 57%

Body

74% acc · 19%

57% acc · 22%

Leg

90% acc · 10%

By position

44% acc · 76%

Distance

49% acc · 72%

82% acc · 24%

Clinch

73% acc · 21%

Ground

55% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jimmy Flick rounds

even

Nate Maness rounds

Round 1Nate Maness edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:05

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Nate Maness edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:50

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:46Control

Round 3Nate Maness edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:46

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 75

Sig Strikes

89 / 168

46.7%

Sig Str %

52.3%

41 / 80

Total Strikes

139 / 234

1 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:41

Ctrl Time

4:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nate Maness	30 / 56	37 / 68	0 / 0	2
1	Jimmy Flick	14 / 31	14 / 31	1 / 3	1
2	Nate Maness	33 / 61	46 / 76	0 / 0	0
2	Jimmy Flick	5 / 16	7 / 19	0 / 2	1
3	Nate Maness	26 / 51	56 / 90	0 / 0	0
3	Jimmy Flick	18 / 28	20 / 30	0 / 3	0

Jimmy Flick

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Nate Maness

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7