← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alessandro Costa won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1487

Elo1543

Jimmy FlickvsAlessandro CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Saturday, June 17, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alessandro Costa won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:03

Style matchupJimmy Flick: WrestlervsAlessandro Costa: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alessandro Costa wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Alessandro Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alessandro Costa at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alessandro Costa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alessandro Costa is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Jimmy Flick has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Alessandro Costa has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alessandro Costa has 86pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jimmy Flick

Red Corner

Alessandro Costa

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-290

(74%)

1487

Elo

1543

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jimmy FlickL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Cody Durden · Dec 20

KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 23

SUBvs Malcolm Gordon · Jan 24

vs Nate Maness · Jun 24

vs Matt Schnell · Apr 25

latest

Alessandro CostaW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Borjas · May 24

KOvs Alden Coria · Sep 25

KOvs Stewart Nicoll · Apr 26

KOvs Matt Schnell · Jun 26

SUBvs Cody Durden · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jimmy FlickMetricAlessandro Costa

1.67

Strikes / min

3.73

4.70

Strikes absorbed / min

3.72

43%

Strike defense

56%

2.36

TDs / 15 min

0.79

Takedown defense

86%

3.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.03Δ 3.04 — meaningful gap+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jimmy FlickAlessandro Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jimmy Flick(6 fights)Alessandro Costa(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jimmy FlickTargetAlessandro Costa

By target zone

22% acc · 43%

Head

64% acc · 57%

71% acc · 36%

Body

80% acc · 18%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

89% acc · 25%

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

71% acc · 83%

Clinch

Ground

73% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jimmy Flick rounds

even

Alessandro Costa rounds

Round 1Alessandro Costa edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns0

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Alessandro Costa edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 37

Sig Strikes

65 / 91

19%

Sig Str %

74%

14 / 37

Total Strikes

65 / 92

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alessandro Costa	54 / 77	54 / 77	0 / 0
1	Jimmy Flick	14 / 36	14 / 36	0 / 3
2	Alessandro Costa	11 / 14	11 / 15	0 / 0
2	Jimmy Flick	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1

Jimmy Flick

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Alessandro Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8