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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jimmy Crute won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1517

Elo1431

Jimmy CrutevsSam AlveyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Saturday, February 9, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Jimmy Crute won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:49

Style matchupJimmy Crute: WrestlervsSam Alvey: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Jimmy Crute wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Jimmy Crute wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jimmy Crute at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sam Alvey has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jimmy Crute

Red Corner

Sam Alvey

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1517

Elo

1431

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jimmy CruteW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Dec 21

SUBvs Alonzo Menifield · Jul 23

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Feb 25

SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 25

SUBvs Ivan Erslan · Sep 25

latest

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jimmy CruteMetricSam Alvey

4.15

Strikes / min

3.28

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

42%

Strike defense

52%

4.39

TDs / 15 min

0.06

58%

Takedown defense

82%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jimmy CruteSam Alvey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jimmy Crute(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +86.7|Blue -86.7

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jimmy CruteTargetSam Alvey

By target zone

30% acc · 50%

Head

21% acc · 100%

67% acc · 14%

Body

83% acc · 36%

Leg

By position

39% acc · 64%

Distance

21% acc · 100%

Clinch

56% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jimmy Crute rounds

even

Sam Alvey rounds

Round 1Jimmy Crute edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 32

Sig Strikes

3 / 14

43%

Sig Str %

21%

17 / 36

Total Strikes

3 / 14

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sam Alvey	3 / 14	3 / 14	0 / 1	0
1	Jimmy Crute	14 / 32	17 / 36	0 / 0	0

Jimmy Crute

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23