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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jimmy Crute won · SUB R3

Elo1517

Elo1473

Jimmy CrutevsPaul CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, December 1, 2018Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Jimmy Crute won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:51

Style matchupJimmy Crute: WrestlervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Paul Craig wins(66.9%)

Actual result: Jimmy Crute wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Craig at +245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Paul Craig threatens submissions; Jimmy Crute has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Jimmy Crute has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jimmy Crute

Red Corner

Paul Craig

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1517

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jimmy CruteW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Dec 21

SUBvs Alonzo Menifield · Jul 23

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Feb 25

SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 25

SUBvs Ivan Erslan · Sep 25

latest

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jimmy CruteMetricPaul Craig

4.15

Strikes / min

2.50

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

42%

Strike defense

43%

4.39

TDs / 15 min

1.43

58%

Takedown defense

35%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jimmy CrutePaul Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jimmy Crute(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.4|Blue -44.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +48.7|Blue -48.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jimmy CruteTargetPaul Craig

By target zone

44% acc · 94%

Head

44% acc · 58%

Body

83% acc · 42%

50% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

14% acc · 12%

Distance

44% acc · 67%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

63% acc · 88%

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jimmy Crute rounds

even

Paul Craig rounds

Round 1Jimmy Crute edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:58

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 2Paul Craig edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:07

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:11Control

Round 3Jimmy Crute edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control4:22

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 38

Sig Strikes

12 / 22

45.7%

Sig Str %

54%

49 / 75

Total Strikes

45 / 57

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 7

100%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

8:27

Ctrl Time

4:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Craig	4 / 7	14 / 18	1 / 2	0
1	Jimmy Crute	5 / 16	7 / 19	1 / 1	1
2	Paul Craig	5 / 9	24 / 28	2 / 4	0
2	Jimmy Crute	4 / 10	10 / 17	0 / 0	1
3	Paul Craig	3 / 6	7 / 11	0 / 1	0
3	Jimmy Crute	8 / 12	32 / 39	0 / 0	2

Jimmy Crute

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20