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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jimmy Crute won · KO/TKO

Elo1517

Elo1538

Jimmy CrutevsModestas BukauskasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, October 17, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Jimmy Crute won

KO/TKO

Style matchupJimmy Crute: WrestlervsModestas Bukauskas: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Jimmy Crute wins(74.9%)

Actual result: Jimmy Crute wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jimmy Crute at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Modestas Bukauskas has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jimmy Crute

Red Corner

Modestas Bukauskas

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1517

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'2"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jimmy CruteW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Dec 21

SUBvs Alonzo Menifield · Jul 23

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Feb 25

SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 25

SUBvs Ivan Erslan · Sep 25

latest

Modestas Bukauskas

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25

vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25

KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26

DECvs Christian Edwards · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jimmy CruteMetricModestas Bukauskas

4.15

Strikes / min

3.24

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

4.05

42%

Strike defense

50%

4.39

TDs / 15 min

0.26

58%

Takedown defense

79%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jimmy CruteModestas Bukauskas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jimmy Crute(10 fights)Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.9|Blue +20.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red +305.0|Blue -305.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jimmy CruteTargetModestas Bukauskas

By target zone

57% acc · 47%

Head

18% acc · 29%

100% acc · 6%

Body

67% acc · 29%

89% acc · 47%

Leg

100% acc · 43%

By position

67% acc · 82%

Distance

41% acc · 100%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jimmy Crute rounds

even

Modestas Bukauskas rounds

Round 1Jimmy Crute edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:25

Knockdowns2

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 24

Sig Strikes

7 / 17

70%

Sig Str %

41%

18 / 25

Total Strikes

7 / 17

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:25

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Modestas Bukauskas	7 / 17	7 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Jimmy Crute	17 / 24	18 / 25	0 / 1	0

Jimmy Crute

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Modestas Bukauskas

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12