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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jimmy Crute won · SUB R1

Elo1517

Elo1489

Jimmy CrutevsMarcin PrachnioUFC Prediction Result

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Saturday, July 19, 2025New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Jimmy Crute won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:42

Style matchupJimmy Crute: WrestlervsMarcin Prachnio: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Jimmy Crute wins(83.1%)

Actual result: Jimmy Crute wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jimmy Crute threatens submissions; Marcin Prachnio has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Marcin Prachnio has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Jimmy Crute

Red Corner

Marcin Prachnio

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1517

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jimmy Crute

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · Apr 21

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Dec 21

SUBvs Alonzo Menifield · Jul 23

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Feb 25

SUBvs Ivan Erslan · Sep 25

latest

Marcin Prachnio

oldest →

vs Philipe Lins · Apr 22

vs William Knight · Feb 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 23

vs Devin Clark · Feb 24

SUBvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jimmy CruteMetricMarcin Prachnio

4.15

Strikes / min

5.52

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.15

42%

Strike defense

54%

4.39

TDs / 15 min

0.14

58%

Takedown defense

53%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap+2.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jimmy CruteMarcin Prachnio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jimmy Crute(10 fights)Marcin Prachnio(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.4|Blue -28.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jimmy CruteTargetMarcin Prachnio

By target zone

28% acc · 100%

Head

33% acc · 33%

Body

90% acc · 43%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

24% acc · 80%

Distance

46% acc · 62%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

100% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jimmy Crute rounds

even

Marcin Prachnio rounds

Round 1Marcin Prachnio edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns3

Control2:18

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 18

Sig Strikes

21 / 36

27%

Sig Str %

58%

11 / 27

Total Strikes

37 / 54

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:18

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcin Prachnio	21 / 36	37 / 54	0 / 0	0
1	Jimmy Crute	5 / 18	11 / 27	3 / 6	2

Jimmy Crute

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Marcin Prachnio

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11