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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jimmy Crute won · SUB R1

Elo1517

Elo1485

Jimmy CrutevsIvan ErslanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Saturday, September 27, 2025Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Jimmy Crute won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:19

Model Prediction: Jimmy Crute wins(87.1%)

Actual result: Jimmy Crute wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jimmy Crute at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jimmy Crute threatens submissions; Ivan Erslan has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Ivan Erslan has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Jimmy Crute

Red Corner

Ivan Erslan

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+194

(34%)

1517

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jimmy Crute

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · Apr 21

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Dec 21

SUBvs Alonzo Menifield · Jul 23

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Feb 25

SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 25

latest

Ivan Erslan

oldest →

vs Ion Cutelaba · Sep 24

vs Navajo Stirling · May 25

DECvs Tuco Tokkos · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jimmy CruteMetricIvan Erslan

4.15

Strikes / min

2.55

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

5.01

42%

Strike defense

53%

4.39

TDs / 15 min

0.45

58%

Takedown defense

61%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50Δ 2.96 — meaningful gap-2.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jimmy CruteIvan Erslan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jimmy Crute(10 fights)Ivan Erslan(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.7|Blue -32.7

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jimmy CruteTargetIvan Erslan

By target zone

43% acc · 25%

Head

69% acc · 90%

100% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 67%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

75% acc · 75%

Distance

71% acc · 100%

Clinch

75% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jimmy Crute rounds

even

Ivan Erslan rounds

Round 1Jimmy Crute edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control2:08

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 16

Sig Strikes

10 / 14

75%

Sig Str %

71%

12 / 16

Total Strikes

10 / 14

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:08

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ivan Erslan	10 / 14	10 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Jimmy Crute	12 / 16	12 / 16	2 / 4	1

Jimmy Crute

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Ivan Erslan

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3