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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jimmie Rivera won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1398

Jimmie RiveravsThomas AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · Saturday, July 22, 2017Uniondale, New York, USA

Official fight result

Jimmie Rivera won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJimmie Rivera: Pressure fightervsThomas Almeida: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jimmie Rivera wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Jimmie Rivera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jimmie Rivera at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thomas Almeida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jimmie Rivera has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Thomas Almeida (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jimmie Rivera

Red Corner

Thomas Almeida

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1493

Elo

1398

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'4"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jimmie Rivera

oldest →

vs John Dodson · Sep 18

vs Aljamain Sterling · Feb 19

vs Petr Yan · Jun 19

vs Cody Stamann · Jul 20

vs Pedro Munhoz · Feb 21

latest

Thomas AlmeidaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · May 16

KOvs Albert Morales · Nov 16

KOvs Rob Font · Jan 18

vs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 20

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jimmie RiveraMetricThomas Almeida

4.03

Strikes / min

4.84

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

4.93

60%

Strike defense

61%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

0.17

92%

Takedown defense

75%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jimmie RiveraThomas Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jimmie Rivera(10 fights)Thomas Almeida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.4|Blue -95.4

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jimmie RiveraTargetThomas Almeida

By target zone

33% acc · 54%

Head

30% acc · 50%

59% acc · 24%

Body

65% acc · 18%

88% acc · 21%

Leg

88% acc · 32%

By position

40% acc · 83%

Distance

42% acc · 93%

80% acc · 11%

Clinch

71% acc · 7%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jimmie Rivera rounds

even

Thomas Almeida rounds

Round 1Jimmie Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:11

Knockdowns2

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Jimmie Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:03

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jimmie Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control1:34

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 160

Sig Strikes

72 / 167

43.7%

Sig Str %

43.7%

75 / 165

Total Strikes

72 / 167

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

22%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:48

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thomas Almeida	28 / 47	28 / 47	0 / 0
1	Jimmie Rivera	22 / 56	22 / 56	0 / 1
2	Thomas Almeida	19 / 60	19 / 60	0 / 0
2	Jimmie Rivera	24 / 53	26 / 55	0 / 2
3	Thomas Almeida	25 / 60	25 / 60	0 / 0
3	Jimmie Rivera	24 / 51	27 / 54	2 / 3

Jimmie Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Thomas Almeida

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10