Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Marlon Moraes won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Jimmie Rivera
Elo1419
Marlon Moraes

Jimmie RiveravsMarlon MoraesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · Friday, June 1, 2018Utica, New York, USA

Official fight result

Marlon Moraes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:33

Model Prediction: Jimmie Rivera wins(64.0%)

Actual result: Marlon Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jimmie Rivera at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marlon Moraes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Jimmie Rivera has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jimmie Rivera
Red Corner
VS
Marlon Moraes
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+100
(50%)
1493
Elo
1419
37
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jimmie Rivera
oldest →
W
vs John Dodson · Sep 18
L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Feb 19
L
vs Petr Yan · Jun 19
W
vs Cody Stamann · Jul 20
L
vs Pedro Munhoz · Feb 21
latest
Marlon MoraesL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jose Aldo · Dec 19
L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20
L
KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20
L
KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21
L
KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jimmie RiveraMetricMarlon Moraes
4.03
Strikes / min
3.37
3.90
Strikes absorbed / min
4.53
60%
Strike defense
54%
0.88
TDs / 15 min
0.87
92%
Takedown defense
46%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.13Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1581 vs 1527Strikes56.0 vs 32.0Takedowns1.0 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.33Form1.0 vs 0.6
Jimmie RiveraMarlon Moraes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jimmie Rivera(10 fights)Marlon Moraes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +73.8|Blue -73.8
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +140.0|Blue -140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jimmie RiveraTargetMarlon Moraes

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
6
75% acc · 86%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 14%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
2
67% acc · 29%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
5
83% acc · 71%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jimmie Rivera rounds
0
even
1
Marlon Moraes rounds
Round 1Marlon Moraes edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
0 / 3
Sig Strikes
7 / 9
0%
Sig Str %
77%
0 / 3
Total Strikes
7 / 9
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Marlon Moraes7 / 97 / 90 / 00
1Jimmie Rivera0 / 30 / 30 / 00

Jimmie Rivera

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights11

Marlon Moraes

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights11