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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jimmie Rivera won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Jimmie RiveravsJohn DodsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Saturday, September 8, 2018Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jimmie Rivera won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJimmie Rivera: Pressure fightervsJohn Dodson: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jimmie Rivera wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Jimmie Rivera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jimmie Rivera at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jimmie Rivera

Red Corner

John Dodson

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1493

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'3"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jimmie Rivera

oldest →

KOvs Marlon Moraes · Jun 18

vs Aljamain Sterling · Feb 19

vs Petr Yan · Jun 19

vs Cody Stamann · Jul 20

vs Pedro Munhoz · Feb 21

latest

John Dodson

oldest →

vs Marlon Moraes · Nov 17

vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18

vs Petr Yan · Feb 19

KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jimmie RiveraMetricJohn Dodson

4.03

Strikes / min

3.20

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

60%

Strike defense

61%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

0.71

92%

Takedown defense

82%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jimmie RiveraJohn Dodson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jimmie Rivera(10 fights)John Dodson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -90.0|Blue +90.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jimmie RiveraTargetJohn Dodson

By target zone

32% acc · 40%

Head

22% acc · 51%

76% acc · 26%

Body

88% acc · 37%

84% acc · 34%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

50% acc · 97%

Distance

31% acc · 83%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

88% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jimmie Rivera rounds

even

John Dodson rounds

Round 1Jimmie Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:04

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Jimmie Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jimmie Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 125

Sig Strikes

41 / 117

52%

Sig Str %

33.3%

63 / 126

Total Strikes

41 / 117

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Dodson	9 / 33	9 / 33	0 / 1
1	Jimmie Rivera	23 / 30	24 / 31	0 / 2
2	John Dodson	10 / 32	10 / 32	0 / 0
2	Jimmie Rivera	15 / 41	15 / 41	0 / 1
3	John Dodson	22 / 52	22 / 52	0 / 0
3	Jimmie Rivera	24 / 54	24 / 54	0 / 0

Jimmie Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17