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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Aljamain Sterling won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1524

Jimmie RiveravsAljamain SterlingUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Sunday, February 17, 2019Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJimmie Rivera: Pressure fightervsAljamain Sterling: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aljamain Sterling at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jimmie Rivera has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jimmie Rivera

Red Corner

Aljamain Sterling

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1493

Elo

1524

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jimmie Rivera

oldest →

KOvs Marlon Moraes · Jun 18

vs John Dodson · Sep 18

vs Petr Yan · Jun 19

vs Cody Stamann · Jul 20

vs Pedro Munhoz · Feb 21

latest

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jimmie RiveraMetricAljamain Sterling

4.03

Strikes / min

4.26

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.15

60%

Strike defense

59%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

2.54

92%

Takedown defense

44%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap+2.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jimmie RiveraAljamain Sterling

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jimmie Rivera(10 fights)Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.1|Blue +31.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jimmie RiveraTargetAljamain Sterling

By target zone

14% acc · 33%

Head

38% acc · 36%

44% acc · 29%

Body

76% acc · 39%

100% acc · 38%

Leg

90% acc · 26%

By position

22% acc · 71%

Distance

53% acc · 76%

100% acc · 29%

Clinch

79% acc · 23%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jimmie Rivera rounds

even

Aljamain Sterling rounds

Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:27

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:49

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:33

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 84

Sig Strikes

101 / 176

36.3%

Sig Str %

59.3%

36 / 97

Total Strikes

129 / 206

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 7

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:49

Ctrl Time

2:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aljamain Sterling	21 / 30	46 / 57	0 / 3
1	Jimmie Rivera	7 / 12	11 / 16	0 / 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	48 / 80	50 / 82	0 / 2
2	Jimmie Rivera	9 / 26	14 / 32	0 / 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	32 / 66	33 / 67	0 / 2
3	Jimmie Rivera	8 / 46	11 / 49	0 / 0

Jimmie Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23