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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Santos won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1373

Elo1432

Jimi ManuwavsThiago SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 8, 2018Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Thiago Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:41

Style matchupJimi Manuwa: Well-roundedvsThiago Santos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Thiago Santos wins(68.6%)

Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thiago Santos at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jimi Manuwa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). Jimi Manuwa has lost 83% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Jimi Manuwa

Red Corner

Thiago Santos

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1373

Elo

1432

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jimi ManuwaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 16

KOvs Corey Anderson · Mar 17

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jul 17

vs Jan Blachowicz · Mar 18

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · Jun 19

latest

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jimi ManuwaMetricThiago Santos

3.43

Strikes / min

3.72

3.97

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

49%

Strike defense

53%

0.53

TDs / 15 min

0.88

70%

Takedown defense

65%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap+1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jimi ManuwaThiago Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jimi Manuwa(10 fights)Thiago Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -59.0|Blue +59.0

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +189.0|Blue -189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jimi ManuwaTargetThiago Santos

By target zone

50% acc · 56%

Head

47% acc · 64%

100% acc · 44%

Body

93% acc · 31%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

40% acc · 30%

Distance

44% acc · 48%

89% acc · 63%

Clinch

79% acc · 52%

67% acc · 7%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jimi Manuwa rounds

even

Thiago Santos rounds

Round 1Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control2:23

Knockdowns0

33Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:16Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 42

Sig Strikes

42 / 74

44%

Sig Str %

53.5%

30 / 45

Total Strikes

65 / 97

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

2:25

Ctrl Time

1:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thiago Santos	33 / 55	55 / 77	1 / 3
1	Jimi Manuwa	26 / 36	29 / 39	0 / 1
2	Thiago Santos	9 / 19	10 / 20	0 / 0
2	Jimi Manuwa	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 1

Jimi Manuwa

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24