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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · SUB R1

Elo1516

Elo1403

Jim MillervsYancy MedeirosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · Saturday, April 26, 2014Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:18

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsYancy Medeiros: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(77.3%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yancy Medeiros enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Yancy Medeiros has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).
Yancy Medeiros has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Yancy Medeiros

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1516

Elo

1403

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Yancy MedeirosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 17

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 18

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 19

vs Lando Vannata · Feb 20

vs Damir Hadzovic · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricYancy Medeiros

2.92

Strikes / min

4.36

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

5.67

56%

Strike defense

47%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

0.33

47%

Takedown defense

73%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerYancy Medeiros

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Yancy Medeiros(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +113.3|Blue -113.3

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -245.0|Blue +245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetYancy Medeiros

By target zone

14% acc · 40%

Head

37% acc · 78%

50% acc · 20%

Body

29% acc · 22%

67% acc · 40%

Leg

0% acc

By position

24% acc · 80%

Distance

31% acc · 89%

50% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Yancy Medeiros rounds

Round 1Yancy Medeiros edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:28

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 19

Sig Strikes

9 / 27

26%

Sig Str %

33%

6 / 20

Total Strikes

9 / 27

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yancy Medeiros	9 / 27	9 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Jim Miller	5 / 19	6 / 20	0 / 1	1

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Yancy Medeiros

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14