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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Vinc Pichel won · U-DEC

Elo1516

Elo1488

Jim MillervsVinc PichelUFC Prediction Result

UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Saturday, August 15, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vinc Pichel won

U-DEC

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsVinc Pichel: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Vinc Pichel wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Vinc Pichel wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinc Pichel at -124 American odds

+$81 profit

$181 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vinc Pichel enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jim Miller has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Vinc Pichel

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-124

(55%)

1516

Elo

1488

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Vinc PichelL3 streak

oldest →

vs Roosevelt Roberts · Jun 19

vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 21

vs Mark Madsen · Apr 22

vs Ismael Bonfim · May 24

vs Rafa Garcia · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricVinc Pichel

2.92

Strikes / min

3.78

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

56%

Strike defense

54%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

2.50

47%

Takedown defense

31%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerVinc Pichel

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Vinc Pichel(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.3|Blue -28.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -357.0|Blue +357.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetVinc Pichel

By target zone

20% acc · 43%

Head

42% acc · 66%

83% acc · 36%

Body

100% acc · 27%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

26% acc · 50%

Distance

43% acc · 37%

67% acc · 29%

Clinch

82% acc · 22%

50% acc · 21%

Ground

53% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Vinc Pichel rounds

Round 1Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:16

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:07

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:29Control

Round 3Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control1:47

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:51Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 39

Sig Strikes

41 / 78

34.3%

Sig Str %

52%

26 / 57

Total Strikes

84 / 124

2 / 2

TDs

3 / 5

100%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

5:10

Ctrl Time

6:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vinc Pichel	12 / 24	19 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Jim Miller	11 / 29	11 / 30	1 / 1	1
2	Vinc Pichel	12 / 23	39 / 51	1 / 1	0
2	Jim Miller	2 / 4	8 / 10	1 / 1	0
3	Vinc Pichel	17 / 31	26 / 42	2 / 4	0
3	Jim Miller	1 / 6	7 / 17	0 / 0	1

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Vinc Pichel

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12