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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1379

Jim MillervsThiago AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · Saturday, November 12, 2016New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsThiago Alves: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Alves has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Thiago Alves

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1516

Elo

1379

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Thiago AlvesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricThiago Alves

2.92

Strikes / min

3.73

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

3.42

56%

Strike defense

62%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

0.71

47%

Takedown defense

63%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerThiago Alves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Thiago Alves(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.6|Blue -137.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -455.0|Blue +455.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetThiago Alves

By target zone

26% acc · 68%

Head

21% acc · 53%

71% acc · 18%

Body

73% acc · 31%

67% acc · 14%

Leg

86% acc · 17%

By position

29% acc · 79%

Distance

30% acc · 83%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

71% acc · 18%

Ground

38% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Thiago Alves rounds

Round 1Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:47

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:09

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:28

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 85

Sig Strikes

36 / 112

32.7%

Sig Str %

32%

45 / 105

Total Strikes

50 / 127

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:24

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thiago Alves	9 / 32	12 / 35	0 / 0	0
1	Jim Miller	11 / 34	15 / 39	1 / 1	0
2	Thiago Alves	13 / 45	19 / 52	0 / 0	0
2	Jim Miller	10 / 27	15 / 32	1 / 2	0
3	Thiago Alves	14 / 35	19 / 40	0 / 0	0
3	Jim Miller	7 / 24	15 / 34	2 / 2	1

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15