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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Scott Holtzman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1443

Jim MillervsScott HoltzmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · Saturday, February 15, 2020Rio Rancho, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

Scott Holtzman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsScott Holtzman: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Scott Holtzman wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Scott Holtzman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Scott Holtzman at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Scott Holtzman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Scott Holtzman has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Scott Holtzman

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1516

Elo

1443

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Scott HoltzmanL3 streak

oldest →

vs Nik Lentz · Feb 19

KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Aug 19

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Aug 20

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 21

vs Clay Guida · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricScott Holtzman

2.92

Strikes / min

4.32

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

3.66

56%

Strike defense

55%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

1.88

47%

Takedown defense

67%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 1.17 — meaningful gap+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerScott Holtzman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Scott Holtzman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +73.0|Blue -73.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetScott Holtzman

By target zone

35% acc · 57%

Head

43% acc · 88%

87% acc · 22%

Body

63% acc · 6%

92% acc · 21%

Leg

67% acc · 7%

By position

42% acc · 76%

Distance

41% acc · 80%

79% acc · 19%

Clinch

63% acc · 11%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

67% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Scott Holtzman rounds

Round 1Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Scott Holtzman edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:27

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:50Control

Round 3Scott Holtzman edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 121

Sig Strikes

88 / 197

48.3%

Sig Str %

43.3%

66 / 131

Total Strikes

120 / 231

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

4:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Scott Holtzman	17 / 54	20 / 57	0 / 0
1	Jim Miller	20 / 46	21 / 48	0 / 1
2	Scott Holtzman	31 / 59	43 / 72	1 / 1
2	Jim Miller	12 / 23	17 / 29	0 / 1
3	Scott Holtzman	40 / 84	57 / 102	0 / 0
3	Jim Miller	26 / 52	28 / 54	0 / 0

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Scott Holtzman

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13