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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1516

Elo1502

Jim MillervsNikolas MottaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Saturday, February 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:58

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsNikolas Motta: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nikolas Motta has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Nikolas Motta

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1516

Elo

1502

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Nikolas Motta

oldest →

KOvs Cameron VanCamp · Sep 22

KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 23

KOvs Tom Nolan · Jan 24

vs Maheshate · Nov 24

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricNikolas Motta

2.92

Strikes / min

4.13

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

5.28

56%

Strike defense

52%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

0.00

47%

Takedown defense

83%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerNikolas Motta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Nikolas Motta(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetNikolas Motta

By target zone

36% acc · 50%

Head

32% acc · 81%

86% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 10%

100% acc · 38%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

50% acc · 71%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

52% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Nikolas Motta rounds

Round 1Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:26

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 92

Sig Strikes

21 / 57

52.5%

Sig Str %

35.5%

49 / 93

Total Strikes

21 / 57

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nikolas Motta	14 / 35	14 / 35	0 / 0
1	Jim Miller	26 / 54	27 / 55	0 / 0
2	Nikolas Motta	7 / 22	7 / 22	0 / 0
2	Jim Miller	22 / 38	22 / 38	0 / 0

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Nikolas Motta

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6