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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chiesa won · SUB R2

Elo1516

Elo1529

Jim MillervsMichael ChiesaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · Thursday, December 10, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:57

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsMichael Chiesa: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Jim Miller threatens submissions; Michael Chiesa has lost 71% of fights by sub.
Michael Chiesa has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Michael Chiesa has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Michael Chiesa

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1516

Elo

1529

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricMichael Chiesa

2.92

Strikes / min

2.02

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

1.73

56%

Strike defense

57%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

3.11

47%

Takedown defense

65%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerMichael Chiesa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.7|Blue +12.7

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetMichael Chiesa

By target zone

42% acc · 71%

Head

39% acc · 85%

100% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 8%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

47% acc · 100%

Distance

20% acc · 23%

Clinch

Ground

67% acc · 77%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Michael Chiesa rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control2:27

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:54Control

Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 15

Sig Strikes

13 / 30

47%

Sig Str %

41.5%

19 / 31

Total Strikes

33 / 55

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:27

Ctrl Time

4:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Chiesa	4 / 12	9 / 20	1 / 1	0
1	Jim Miller	4 / 7	14 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Michael Chiesa	9 / 18	24 / 35	1 / 1	1
2	Jim Miller	3 / 8	5 / 10	0 / 0	1

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22