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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1490

Jim MillervsMark BocekUFC Prediction Result

UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · Saturday, March 27, 2010Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsMark Bocek: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(70.2%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jim Miller has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).
Mark Bocek has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Mark Bocek

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1516

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Mark Bocek

oldest →

vs Benson Henderson · Apr 11

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 11

vs John Alessio · Apr 12

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 12

vs Mike de la Torre · Apr 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricMark Bocek

2.92

Strikes / min

2.34

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

56%

Strike defense

60%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

3.65

47%

Takedown defense

31%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerMark Bocek

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Mark Bocek(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.9|Blue -25.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetMark Bocek

By target zone

22% acc · 52%

Head

21% acc · 41%

71% acc · 22%

Body

88% acc · 41%

100% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

28% acc · 61%

Distance

21% acc · 35%

60% acc · 26%

Clinch

89% acc · 47%

43% acc · 13%

Ground

43% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Mark Bocek rounds

Round 1Mark Bocek edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:06

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:05Control

Round 2Mark Bocek edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:42Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:30

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:05Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 67

Sig Strikes

17 / 45

33.7%

Sig Str %

37.7%

42 / 89

Total Strikes

52 / 81

1 / 2

TDs

4 / 8

50%

TD %

63.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:36

Ctrl Time

9:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mark Bocek	7 / 13	14 / 20	1 / 2	0
1	Jim Miller	9 / 26	19 / 36	0 / 0	2
2	Mark Bocek	3 / 11	24 / 33	1 / 1	1
2	Jim Miller	2 / 6	6 / 13	0 / 0	1
3	Mark Bocek	7 / 21	14 / 28	2 / 5	0
3	Jim Miller	12 / 35	17 / 40	1 / 2	0

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Mark Bocek

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights7