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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joe Solecki won · U-DEC

Elo1516

Elo1489

Jim MillervsJoe SoleckiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · Saturday, April 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joe Solecki won

U-DEC

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsJoe Solecki: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Joe Solecki wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Joe Solecki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Solecki at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Solecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jim Miller has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Joe Solecki

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1516

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Joe SoleckiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Da Silva · Jun 22

SUBvs Carl Deaton · Feb 23

KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 23

vs Grant Dawson · Jun 24

vs Nurullo Aliev · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricJoe Solecki

2.92

Strikes / min

1.97

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

56%

Strike defense

50%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

2.06

47%

Takedown defense

14%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerJoe Solecki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Joe Solecki(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.7|Blue -26.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetJoe Solecki

By target zone

27% acc · 64%

Head

36% acc · 63%

50% acc · 18%

Body

50% acc · 11%

50% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 26%

By position

29% acc · 82%

Distance

44% acc · 95%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Joe Solecki rounds

Round 1Joe Solecki edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control2:03

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Joe Solecki edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:39Control

Round 3Joe Solecki edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 34

Sig Strikes

19 / 42

24%

Sig Str %

47.7%

45 / 76

Total Strikes

93 / 146

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:03

Ctrl Time

9:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joe Solecki	16 / 36	17 / 37	0 / 1
1	Jim Miller	9 / 28	20 / 40	0 / 0
2	Joe Solecki	2 / 3	41 / 56	1 / 2
2	Jim Miller	2 / 5	18 / 28	0 / 0
3	Joe Solecki	1 / 3	35 / 53	0 / 1
3	Jim Miller	0 / 1	7 / 8	0 / 0

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Joe Solecki

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9