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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jim Miller won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1516
Jim Miller
Elo1491

Jim MillervsJesse ButlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Saturday, June 3, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:23

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jim Miller has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jim Miller has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller
Red Corner
VS
Jesse Butler
Blue Corner
-255
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
1516
Elo
1491
42
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller
oldest →
W
SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24
L
vs King Green · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24
L
vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25
W
SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26
latest
Jesse Butler
oldest →
L
vs Brad Katona · Jun 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricJesse Butler
2.92
Strikes / min
2.02
3.43
Strikes absorbed / min
4.62
56%
Strike defense
39%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
0.00
47%
Takedown defense
0%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.51Δ 2.09 — meaningful gap-2.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1543 vs 1500Strikes3.0 vs 2.0Takedowns1.5 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.70 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Jim MillerJesse Butler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Jim Miller(10 fights)Jesse Butler(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +25.4|Blue -25.4
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -48.6|Blue +48.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetJesse Butler

By target zone

3
60% acc · 100%
Head
1
20% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
0

By position

2
50% acc · 67%
Distance
1
14% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 33%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jim Miller rounds
0
even
0
Jesse Butler rounds
Round 1Jim Miller edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
3 / 5
Sig Strikes
1 / 7
60%
Sig Str %
14%
3 / 5
Total Strikes
1 / 7
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jesse Butler1 / 71 / 70 / 00
1Jim Miller3 / 53 / 50 / 00

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights40

Jesse Butler

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2