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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jim Miller won · SUB R1
Elo1516
Jim Miller
Elo1372
Jason Gonzalez

Jim MillervsJason GonzalezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · Saturday, April 27, 2019Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:12

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(74.3%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jim Miller threatens submissions; Jason Gonzalez has lost 67% of fights by sub.
  • Jim Miller has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller
Red Corner
VS
Jason Gonzalez
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
1516
Elo
1372
42
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
6'2"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller
oldest →
W
SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24
L
vs King Green · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24
L
vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25
W
SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26
latest
Jason Gonzalez
oldest →
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Sep 16
W
SUBvs JC Cottrell · Jan 17
L
SUBvs Gregor Gillespie · Sep 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricJason Gonzalez
2.92
Strikes / min
3.06
3.43
Strikes absorbed / min
3.13
56%
Strike defense
58%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
0.00
47%
Takedown defense
30%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1510 vs 1483Strikes28.6 vs 12.0Takedowns1.2 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.29 vs 0.33Form-0.4 vs -0.4
Jim MillerJason Gonzalez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Jim Miller(10 fights)Jason Gonzalez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +143.8|Blue -143.8
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red -455.0|Blue +455.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetJason Gonzalez

By target zone

4
44% acc · 67%
Head
5
25% acc · 50%
0
Body
0
2
100% acc · 33%
Leg
5
100% acc · 50%

By position

6
55% acc · 100%
Distance
10
40% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jim Miller rounds
0
even
0
Jason Gonzalez rounds
Round 1Jim Miller edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control0:52
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 11
Sig Strikes
10 / 25
54%
Sig Str %
40%
8 / 14
Total Strikes
10 / 25
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:52
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jason Gonzalez10 / 2510 / 250 / 00
1Jim Miller6 / 118 / 142 / 21

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights40

Jason Gonzalez

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4