← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1366

Jim MillervsGleison TibauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · Wednesday, September 15, 2010Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsGleison Tibau: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gleison Tibau has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Gleison Tibau

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1516

Elo

1366

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Gleison TibauL4 streak

oldest →

vs Norman Parke · Jan 15

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

vs Desmond Green · Jun 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricGleison Tibau

2.92

Strikes / min

1.95

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

56%

Strike defense

63%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

4.08

47%

Takedown defense

92%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerGleison Tibau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Gleison Tibau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +150.5|Blue -150.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +4.0|Blue -4.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetGleison Tibau

By target zone

15% acc · 45%

Head

22% acc · 91%

47% acc · 24%

Body

25% acc · 4%

69% acc · 31%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

25% acc · 86%

Distance

22% acc · 87%

33% acc · 14%

Clinch

43% acc · 13%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Gleison Tibau rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:17

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 2Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:05

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 3Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:45

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 113

Sig Strikes

23 / 100

25%

Sig Str %

23.3%

44 / 128

Total Strikes

36 / 114

0 / 6

TDs

4 / 5

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:07

Ctrl Time

3:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gleison Tibau	6 / 35	10 / 39	2 / 2	0
1	Jim Miller	14 / 45	19 / 50	0 / 1	1
2	Gleison Tibau	7 / 24	13 / 31	2 / 2	0
2	Jim Miller	9 / 32	12 / 35	0 / 3	1
3	Gleison Tibau	10 / 41	13 / 44	0 / 1	0
3	Jim Miller	6 / 36	13 / 43	0 / 2	0

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18