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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · SUB R3

Elo1516

Elo1493

Jim MillervsGabriel BenitezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Saturday, January 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:25

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsGabriel Benitez: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at -166 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Gabriel Benitez

Blue Corner

-166

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1516

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

KOvs Jesse Butler · Jun 23

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Gabriel Benitez

oldest →

KOvs Justin Jaynes · Dec 20

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Jul 21

KOvs David Onama · Feb 22

KOvs Charlie Ontiveros · Aug 22

vs Maheshate · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricGabriel Benitez

2.92

Strikes / min

5.26

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

4.49

56%

Strike defense

63%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

0.22

47%

Takedown defense

55%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerGabriel Benitez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Gabriel Benitez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.1|Blue -23.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -294.0|Blue +294.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetGabriel Benitez

By target zone

46% acc · 63%

Head

35% acc · 64%

83% acc · 13%

Body

62% acc · 16%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

54% acc · 84%

Distance

44% acc · 99%

71% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Gabriel Benitez rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:17

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control2:52

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:46

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 140

Sig Strikes

80 / 182

58.3%

Sig Str %

43.7%

96 / 157

Total Strikes

84 / 188

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:55

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gabriel Benitez	32 / 77	32 / 77	0 / 0	0
1	Jim Miller	32 / 64	33 / 65	0 / 0	0
2	Gabriel Benitez	22 / 48	26 / 54	0 / 0	0
2	Jim Miller	28 / 38	42 / 53	1 / 1	0
3	Gabriel Benitez	26 / 57	26 / 57	0 / 0	0
3	Jim Miller	20 / 38	21 / 39	1 / 1	1

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Gabriel Benitez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15