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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · SUB R1

Elo1516

Elo1354

Jim MillervsFabricio CamoesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · Saturday, December 28, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:42

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsFabricio Camoes: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jim Miller threatens submissions; Fabricio Camoes has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Jim Miller has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Fabricio Camoes

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+375

(21%)

1516

Elo

1354

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Fabricio CamoesL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kurt Pellegrino · Mar 10

SUBvs Tommy Hayden · Jan 12

vs Melvin Guillard · Jul 12

SUBvs Anthony Rocco Martin · Oct 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricFabricio Camoes

2.92

Strikes / min

1.29

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

56%

Strike defense

61%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

2.34

47%

Takedown defense

20%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerFabricio Camoes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Fabricio Camoes(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +162.4|Blue -162.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -175.0|Blue +175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetFabricio Camoes

By target zone

14% acc · 50%

Head

33% acc · 55%

100% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 27%

50% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

19% acc · 67%

Distance

47% acc · 82%

67% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 18%

0% acc

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Fabricio Camoes rounds

Round 1Fabricio Camoes edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:12

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 25

Sig Strikes

11 / 23

24%

Sig Str %

47%

9 / 28

Total Strikes

16 / 28

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Fabricio Camoes	11 / 23	16 / 28	0 / 0	0
1	Jim Miller	6 / 25	9 / 28	1 / 1	1

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Fabricio Camoes

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5