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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1516

Elo1449

Jim MillervsErick GonzalezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Saturday, October 16, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:14

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsErick Gonzalez: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Erick Gonzalez wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erick Gonzalez at +225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jim Miller threatens submissions; Erick Gonzalez has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Jim Miller has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).
Erick Gonzalez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Erick Gonzalez

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1516

Elo

1449

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Erick GonzalezL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Aug 22

KOvs Trevor Peek · Feb 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricErick Gonzalez

2.92

Strikes / min

2.40

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

8.08

56%

Strike defense

40%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

6.00

47%

Takedown defense

50%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 5.17 — meaningful gap-5.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerErick Gonzalez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Erick Gonzalez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +67.4|Blue -67.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetErick Gonzalez

By target zone

61% acc · 78%

Head

33% acc · 71%

100% acc · 13%

Body

60% acc · 21%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

60% acc · 56%

Distance

33% acc · 79%

80% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

75% acc · 19%

Ground

50% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Erick Gonzalez rounds

Round 1Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control1:52

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:02Control

Round 2Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 48

Sig Strikes

14 / 37

68%

Sig Str %

35.5%

43 / 60

Total Strikes

22 / 45

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:55

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Erick Gonzalez	13 / 34	21 / 42	1 / 2
1	Jim Miller	27 / 41	38 / 53	1 / 2
2	Erick Gonzalez	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0
2	Jim Miller	5 / 7	5 / 7	0 / 0

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Erick Gonzalez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3