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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · S-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1356

Jim MillervsDanny CastilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · Saturday, July 25, 2015Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsDanny Castillo: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Castillo at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Castillo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Danny Castillo has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Danny Castillo

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1516

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Danny CastilloL3 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 13

KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14

vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14

KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricDanny Castillo

2.92

Strikes / min

2.57

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

1.96

56%

Strike defense

62%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

2.95

47%

Takedown defense

63%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerDanny Castillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +160.3|Blue -160.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetDanny Castillo

By target zone

27% acc · 47%

Head

27% acc · 63%

57% acc · 18%

Body

45% acc · 14%

89% acc · 36%

Leg

80% acc · 23%

By position

41% acc · 93%

Distance

34% acc · 94%

20% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 4%

Ground

67% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Danny Castillo rounds

Round 1Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:04

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:33Control

Round 2Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:06

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 110

Sig Strikes

35 / 103

39.3%

Sig Str %

31.7%

61 / 127

Total Strikes

51 / 120

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 6

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:10

Ctrl Time

2:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Danny Castillo	4 / 15	15 / 27	0 / 1
1	Jim Miller	4 / 11	20 / 28	1 / 1
2	Danny Castillo	16 / 46	16 / 46	0 / 1
2	Jim Miller	23 / 47	23 / 47	0 / 0
3	Danny Castillo	15 / 42	20 / 47	0 / 4
3	Jim Miller	18 / 52	18 / 52	1 / 2

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14