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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · SUB R1

Elo1516

Elo1495

Jim MillervsDamon JacksonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Saturday, November 16, 2024New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:44

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsDamon Jackson: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jim Miller threatens submissions; Damon Jackson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Damon Jackson (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Damon Jackson

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-238

(70%)

1516

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

KOvs Jesse Butler · Jun 23

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Damon Jackson

oldest →

KOvs Pat Sabatini · Sep 22

KOvs Dan Ige · Jan 23

vs Billy Quarantillo · Aug 23

vs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 24

vs Chepe Mariscal · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricDamon Jackson

2.92

Strikes / min

2.96

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

56%

Strike defense

49%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

2.30

47%

Takedown defense

37%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerDamon Jackson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Damon Jackson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.7|Blue -20.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetDamon Jackson

By target zone

26% acc · 50%

Head

47% acc · 50%

100% acc · 20%

Body

50% acc · 38%

100% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

39% acc · 90%

Distance

52% acc · 100%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Damon Jackson rounds

Round 1Damon Jackson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 24

Sig Strikes

16 / 31

41%

Sig Str %

51%

11 / 25

Total Strikes

16 / 31

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Damon Jackson	16 / 31	16 / 31	0 / 3	0
1	Jim Miller	10 / 24	11 / 25	0 / 0	1

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Damon Jackson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12