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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · SUB R1

Elo1516

Elo1490

Jim MillervsClay GuidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · Saturday, August 3, 2019Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:58

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsClay Guida: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Guida at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jim Miller threatens submissions; Clay Guida has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Clay Guida has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Clay Guida

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1516

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricClay Guida

2.92

Strikes / min

2.63

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

56%

Strike defense

61%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

3.10

47%

Takedown defense

66%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerClay Guida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Clay Guida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.7|Blue -25.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetClay Guida

By target zone

14% acc · 50%

Head

25% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Clay Guida rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 8

Sig Strikes

2 / 5

25%

Sig Str %

40%

2 / 8

Total Strikes

2 / 5

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Clay Guida	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0	0
1	Jim Miller	2 / 8	2 / 8	0 / 0	1

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27